CPI hit a record low of 41 in December, and inflat

CPI fell sharply to a record low inflation pressure of 4.1% in December

CPI fell sharply to a record low inflation pressure of 4.1% in December

China Construction machinery information

Guide: on January 12, the National Bureau of Statistics released a year-on-year increase of 4.1% in CPI in December 2011, which was basically consistent with previous market expectations and hit a new low in the year. However, in the whole year of 2011, China's CPI still increased by 5.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the previous official control target of about 4%. Bank of communications analyst Lu Zhi

on January 12, the CPI in December 2011 released by the National Bureau of statistics increased by 4.1% year-on-year, which was basically consistent with the previous market expectations, hitting a new low in the year. However, in the whole year of 2011, China's CPI still increased by 5.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the previous official control target of about 4%

Bank of communications analyst luzhiming told that the inflationary pressure in 2011 continued to increase compared with 2010, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI and PPI in the whole year was second only to 2008, which was the highest in the past decade. However, this trend is not expected to continue until 2012. This year's price increase will make cars more attractive and will fall significantly lower than that in 2011

JPMorgan Chase also reported that due to the impact of the New Year holiday, the overall inflation situation in January will remain the same, but then it will be eased in the first half of 2012. The overall inflation rate is expected to show a downward trend and will fall below 3% in mid-2012

last month's CPI growth continued to decline

in December 2011, CPI did not continue the pace of sharp decline in October and November, and the year-on-year growth rate was only 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, while the month on month growth rate increased by 0.3%

institutions believe that under the background that the tail raising factor has been zero in December, the decline in CPI has slowed down, mainly due to the price rise caused by the pre holiday consumption boom

from the weekly price data released by the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of agriculture and other departments, in December, the price of edible agricultural products ended the early decline and began to rise slightly. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in December, food prices rose by 9.1% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3% over the previous month. Modified plastic is still the mainstream trend in the automotive interior market by percentage points

since the year-on-year increase of CPI rose to 6.5% in July last year, it began to decline. Despite the seasonal disturbance in December, the trend of easing inflationary pressure is still clear

in December last year, CPI increased by 0.3% month on month, and the increase has been lower than the historical average level for five consecutive months. Among them, the minimum sales volume of food was 10000 yuan, and CPI increased by 1.2% month on month, lower than the historical average of 2.0% increase from 2005 to 2010

in terms of domestic non food prices, affected by the recent fall in international commodity prices, the overall increase is in a slight decline process. In December, non food prices fell by 0.1% month on month, affecting the overall price level to decline by about 0.06 percentage points month on month

pengwensheng, chief economist of CICC, predicted that the CPI growth rate may rise to about 1% in January due to the peak consumption during the Spring Festival. Since the CPI in January 2011 also increased by 1% month on month, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in January this year will be basically the same as that in December 2011. After the Spring Festival, CPI growth will continue to fall, and there is a greater possibility of a month on month decline in February

the fall in inflation makes monetary policy more calm

Li Daokui, member of the monetary policy committee of the central bank, commented on the CPI data, saying that the downward trend in price growth is obvious, and the CPI increase is expected to be about 3% in 2012. This shows that the macro-control space is expanded and the policy can be more comfortable

Li Daokui's analysis represents the judgment of most economists. Against the background that the CPI will remain relatively high in January 2012, Lu Zhiming still believes that prices will fall significantly in the first half of the year. He said that the cumulative growth rate of M2 and M1 fell to 13.6% and 7.9% in December 2011, which was at a historical low in the past more than a decade. In addition, the possibility of comprehensive easing of monetary policy in 2012 is small, and the time lag of monetary tightening effect in the early stage is long, which will affect at least the first half of 2012

looking at the whole year, Guotai Junan report pointed out that although the annual average of CPI in 2011 exceeded expectations, the single month value at the end of the year has fallen back to the target value. Among the driving forces of CPI rise in 2011, the tail raising factor accounted for 2.9%, and the new price rising factor contributed 2.5%

the report predicts that the tail raising factor in 2012 is about 1.3%, so even if the new price increase factor in 2012 reaches 2. 5% as in 2011 It can be said that like tens of thousands of businesses, logistics and service providers in Alibaba's e-commerce system, 5% of the annual inflation will only be 3.8%, and less than 4% of the annual inflation will be a high probability event

zhangzhiwei, chief economist of Nomura Securities, told that CPI data was no longer a key factor of concern for decision-makers. The fall in import growth in December 2011 means that economic growth is declining rapidly, and the weakening inflation situation gives policymakers more room to relax policies

it is reported that the growth rate of M2 in 2012 was about 14%. Zhang Zhiwei believes that the new loan line may continue to increase in the first quarter of 2012 to offset the lack of economic momentum. In addition, it is expected that there will be four reductions in the deposit reserve ratio, one reduction in interest rates, and an 8 trillion yuan new credit line during the year

Guotai Junan's prediction is more detailed, saying that the deposit reserve ratio may still be reduced before the holiday, and the interest rate may be reduced after the first quarter

JPMorgan Chase reported that the central bank will reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 50 basis points before the Spring Festival, which is likely to be reduced within this week, in order to ease the liquidity pressure caused by seasonal factors. The report explained that this pressure mainly came from the cash demand before the holiday and the increase in fiscal deposits in January